Cause and Effect(s)

'For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction'. So says a certain Sir Isaac Newton. While that might apply in the world of physics, the real world is slightly different. I think that for every action there are multiple interdependent chain reactions. Something like a drop of water on the surface of a calm pond that causes waves to radiate in ever expanding circles. What makes politics, and by extension - life, so complicated is that there is never just one drop of water. Nor is the pond ever truly calm.

Seems almost elementary doesn't it? Drip, splash, crash. Yet it is something that so many people who are paid to air their opinions (and some who do it for free) seem to miss out on. Over the last few months I have been part of many diverse discussions - The IPL, Obama Vs Chelsea's Momma, Indian troops assisting the US in Iraq (God forbid it please!), Dumping carbon into the sea and of course... the 60,000 crore farm loan waiver. All of these discussions have been with smart, educated and well informed people. Some of whom are better orators than me.

What surprises me is the way some people look at an issue in isolation, disregard so many complicating factors, and then make a Nostradamus like prediction. Now I am all for a healthy debate, but I think that any point of view which takes a fixed stand and says, 'It's my way or the highway' is not only short sighted but also dangerously arrogant. I mean discussing something as complicated as how to fight global warming cannot be as simple as arguing over whether Heineken is better than Carlsberg (Heineken certainly is!). Can there be only one correct stand?

I think the Red Indians had a good system where any major decision concerning the tribe would be made only after considering the effect on the next seven generations! Seems like they had a far superior method of forecasting than do the hot shots at Wall Street (sub prime crisis), the think tanks at the Pentagon (Iraq Invasion), the ICL organizers (poor Subhash Chandra) or the political pundits who get every election forecast wrong (India Shining, Mayawati in UP).

So how about we put our hand up and say, 'Look I don't know for sure what is going to happen. But if I were to hazard a guess it would be..... '? It isn't that difficult nor does it show you to be an ignoramus. For when Chairman Mao was asked what he thought the effects of the French Revolution were, he said 'It is too early to tell'.

:-)